From a Radiology Business summary of two new JACR papers predicting the future radiology market:
In the next 30 years, the supply of radiologists is expected to grow by nearly 26%, assuming no increases in the number of radiology residents. Meanwhile, imaging utilization will climb between 17-27% during the same time, depending on modality, experts detailed in the JACR.
[…]
The present radiologist shortage is projected to persist unless steps are taken to grow the workforce and/or decrease per person imaging utilization…the shortage is not projected to get worse, nor will it likely improve in the next three decades, without effective action.
The two papers are here and here. To be fair, if you read the papers, there is more nuance to their predictions, and they acknowledge important trends (e.g. higher radiologist attrition in recent years and increasing utilization rates even outside of aging/demographic trends) that could easily result in big differences.
But.
Does anyone think taking any version of the current status quo of either the radiology workforce and current imaging volume trends and extrapolating 30 YEARS into the future generates a meaningful prediction?
Radiology was radically different 30 years ago and multiple predictions during that period were comically wrong. I don’t see a reason to assume the future will be any more predictable. A world where AI changes nothing and the already increasing role of non-radiologists in imaging interpretation (including but limited to midlevels) magically flatlines is not a world I think we live in.
A stable 30-year workforce shortage would be…impressive.