An interesting essay by Leopold Aschenbrenner discussing the recent history of as well predictions for the next 10 years of AI: “From GPT-4 to AGI”
A long but good read, which itself is part of an even longer series.
From “Writer Math” by Elissa Bassist in McSweeney’s:
If you think a piece is 100 percent done, it’s actually 45 percent done. To get it to 100 percent done, you can’t.
It may just be the marketing, but the newly announced DC-1 tablet from Daylight seems poised to scratch an itch of our times. As summarized by Om Malik:
What the company has created is a beautiful tablet— about the size of a normal iPad Air. It is just a “little less than white,” white, with a gorgeous screen. It is very simple, elegant, and lovely. It has an e-ink like screen, and the matte monochrome paper-like display is optimized for reading, writing, and note-taking. It refreshes at 60 frames per second, a pretty big deal for these kind of displays.
I love at least the idea of this.
Complaining about modern technology, addictive software, and the ills of social media can be is tiresome. But it’s also a real, difficult-to-mitigate problem. So I hope this forthcoming thing works as advertised and becomes a commercial success.
And I would love to see this company, on the heels of that success, expand their offerings to additional form factors (the phone being the obvious next choice) or prove the market enough to inspire more mature companies to enter whatever the term for these “deliberate computing” or “modernized retro” or “neo-vintage” or “tech nostalgist” concepts should be.
Nothing currently available has really done the trick. Even the cheapest FreeWrite devices are comically expensive as an isolated electronic typewriter with extremely small displays, and devices like the reMarkable also have a (purposefully) narrow, limiting use case.
The closest thing would be the tablets by Boox, which have good and pretty fast e-ink screens but don’t quite achieve the advertised frame rate here (which if true would be fast enough to function like a regular monitor), feel just a tad underpowered, and don’t have the fun (if potentially gimmicky?) Amber backlight. I actually have a Boox Palma, which is an awesome little phone-sized version of what the DC-1 should bascially turn out to be minus the stylus support, and it’s overall fantastic. It’s a convenient form factor for reading, runs customized Android so Kindle, Libby, and many other apps all work perfectly, and can do the internet and anything else a phone or tablet can do (minus the phone itself). The screen really is pretty fast (you can technically watch a video in grayscale, though not particularly well), and the backlight temperature can be tuned to a slightly warm color for dark environments. Still, it’s just the slightest bit slow such that no one could mistake it for a truly normal computer with a magic screen.
While Boox has made some solid devices, if the DC-1 can run its customized Android system as well and quickly as in the demos, it might function as the productivity and consumption machine for writing, reading, and potentially drawing that the iPad and other tablets have largely failed to achieve due to either not being able to do enough or simultaneously way too much. Maybe this finds the sweet spot.
As a parent with pre-phone-age children, I would love to see more entries in the not-quite-so-smart phone pantheon. There are things I love about modern phones that make using a purposely old-school device too limiting: maps, streaming music, audiobooks, e-books, email (sigh), and yes, sometimes the Internet. Also a top-notch camera (must. take. photos. of. kids). A future world where there are good phones with paper-like aesthetics combined with a curated but powerful productivity and consumption suite of apps would be great.
Here’s a mini-documentary that describes how the new “LivePaper” display works compared with regular e-ink:
The world's first 60+ FPS e-ink display by @daylightco on Episode 45 of S³
See how it works, the 6-year development journey, and Daylight's vision for the future of personal computing. pic.twitter.com/s8DK0iLA1Y
— Jason Carman (@jasonjoyride) May 25, 2024
Sometimes it’s the right features—not more features—that make a new product worth it.
Via Loaded by Sara Newbomb:
“Specifically, when the future self shares similarities with the present self, when it is viewed in vivid and realistic terms, and when it is seen in a positive light, people are more willing to make choices today that may benefit them at some point in the years to come.” —Hal Hershfield.
Hershfield’s research suggests that the more we visualize our future self as really, specifically being just like us, the better we are able to act on current plans that feel deprivational to provide for the future.
Does your salary come from your employer? Not at all! Your employer is simply renting your time and skills. Your salary is the result of your internal resources being turned into a valuable asset that you lease to your employer in the form of labor. Your skills are the asset. Your salary comes from you.
You are your most important asset-generating resource to nurture and protect.
Just like your future self doesn’t benefit if you go sprinting on the hedonic treadmill, your future self also doesn’t benefit if you burn out so badly that you jeopardize your ability to work in your profession at a high level. You have needs now and in the future, and neither should be ignored.
Newcomb’s nice section on needs starts with our old friend Maslow:
It is quite true that man lives by bread alone—when there is no bread. But what happens to man’s desires when there is plenty of bread and when his belly is chronically filled? At once other (and “higher”) needs emerge and these, rather than physiological hungers, dominate the organism. And when these in turn are satisfied, again new (and still “higher”) needs emerge and so on. This is what we mean by saying that the basic human needs are organized into a hierarchy of relative prepotency. —Maslow, 1943, p. 375
I’m not sure I’ve ever read a single word from the “hierarchy of needs” primary source before.
Then, we combine that with this less staid perspective of wants versus needs:
Every moment each human being is doing the best we know at that moment to meet our needs. We never do anything that is not in the service of a need. There is no conflict on our planet at the level of needs. We all have the same needs. The problem is in strategies for meeting the needs. —Marshall Rosenberg
And she brings that around to personal finance:
How many times have you tried to cut back on a certain expense only to find yourself splurging later? This comes from the fact that what we have called wants are actually needs. The core message of Rosenberg’s work was that every action a person takes is intended (consciously or unconsciously) to meet a basic need, and that our needs are universal. Any one of our needs might feel more important than another in a given situation, depending on the person and the circumstance. On one day, you may feel a powerful need for intimacy. The next, you may desperately seek solitude.
[…]
Very often, when people are trying to make ends meet, their first strategy is to start cutting expenses. While this is a great instinct, and we often do want to cut back on our spending, the problem with this approach is that if you do not take the time to ask yourself what need that expense was meeting, you will find that your new budget is very uncomfortable. Just like a dieter who restricts himself too much only to find himself eating an entire pizza in a late-night frenzy, we can do more harm to our finances than good by ignoring our needs when we cut our expenses.
Her rule of thumb:
If everyone cannot have it at once, it’s a strategy, not a need. Dig deeper to find the real need.
Wants are strategies for filling needs. The need is non-negotiable, but the strategy is mutable.
- Yes, I’ve started the process of creating a small dedicated job board just for independent radiologist-owned private practices. With all the corporate noise out there, I’m hoping we can connect radiologists looking for the real deal with those groups who are doing it. Still a ways to go, but feel free to reach out to me at ben@benwhite.com if your group is interested, and I’ll get back to you when things are ready.
- Separately, yes, for the first time in this site’s 15-year history, I’ve decided to run a real ad. Not a banner ad (and no images), but starting on June 1st, there will be a single monthly post featuring a limited number of true radiology private practices. I’ve temporarily changed this policy because of the radiologist shortage combined with the current less-than-stellar recruitment/marketing environment. I hope folks find it unobtrusive and even helpful; I’ll reevaluate in a year.
Here is the updated first entry in a series of posts about radiology tools, ergonomics, and efficiency. This includes the go-to stuff I use every day to practice diagnostic radiology, (briefly) how I use them, and a few alternatives. This series is the result of a lot of research, trial and error, and input from others in the radiology community.
Unnecessary caveat: There is no real best anything. Here’s what I have idiosyncratically landed on as a stable happy set-up that balances efficiency and comfort (and an editorial selection of those favored by others).
We get into more workflow details and justifications in the other posts, but we can summarize my personal approach as a hands-free microphone solution, a vertical mouse with some—but not a comical number of programmable buttons—and a left-hand device that adds additional hotkey efficiency as well as—critically!—a way to scroll with my nondominant hand in order to spread the love across multiple joints.
(more…)
I’ve been seeing increasing news coverage of the nationwide radiology shortage, so it’s about time for me mention again: like every other practice in the country, my group is also hiring!
American Radiology Associates is a 100%-independent physician-owned radiology practice in Dallas-Forth Worth (of which I am a partner/shareholder). We’re privademic: we have part of the practice that works with the Baylor Dallas radiology residency, and we have part of the practice that does not. I enjoy a nice mix.
We’re hiring for breast, body, neuro, NM/PET, general, swing, and overnight positions.
While our partners are generally in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, we offer 100%-remote partnership-eligible swing and overnight shift positions (separate positions for general, body, and for neuro).
The swing shift is 2pm-10pm central time, weekdays (M-F) alternating every other week + 13 weekends of call (yes that means mostly weekdays and not 7/7, and never any deep nights or super weird circadian-destroying hours). The deep night position is 10p-6am CST, 7 on / 14 off. Both involve typical general ER radiology, and the overnight position involves some teaching via resident overreads.
(We’re also open to normal daytime remote employees for body/general.)
So if you’re in the market, come work with me and check out our great team in Dallas. If you’re interested, send your CV to careers@americanrad.com and CC me at ben.white@americanrad.com.
I wrote about this last September, but it’s important enough that I’ll repeat myself with more bullet points and shorter sentences.
The Summary
- The new SAVE student loan plan has a generous unpaid interest subsidy: every dollar of accrued interest that isn’t covered by your monthly payment is waived.
- SAVE also has a feature (“loophole”) that allows some borrowers to enter repayment early and benefit from that 100% subsidy on unpaid interest, effectively making qualifying loans (Grad PLUS loans, old loans from undergrad) interest-free while in school.
The Background
- The SAVE plan’s 100% unpaid interest subsidy is a significant benefit, especially for those with low incomes that allow for qualifying $0 payments.
- Normally, you cannot enter repayment for the loans you take out while in school. As in, you cannot enter repayment during medical school for the regular Direct Unsubsidized (“Stafford”) loans you take out to pay for medical school. Ditto for undergrad loans during undergrad.
- There are two exceptions: 1) Grad PLUS loans 2) Regular Direct loans taken out for previous schooling (e.g. undergraduate loans while in graduate school)
The Benefit
- Graduate students like medical students with undergraduate loans can waive the in-school deferment and enjoy 0% interest on those undergrad loans during graduate school.
- Graduate students with new PLUS loans can waive the in-school deferment and also benefit from the subsdized interest rate during school.
- (The income limit for an individual to have $0 loans in the continental US is ~$32,800, so you can earn some money and still do this.)
The Risk
- PLUS loans have higher interest rates and origination fees. While the interest rate will be lower in school with this loophole, the origination fee is unavoidable. If/once you make enough money to lose out on the unpaid interest subsidy, PLUS loans have higher rates.
- The temptation to try to exclusively use PLUS loans to benefit from the subsidy is risky as the SAVE program isn’t codified in law, and PLUS loans cannot be converted to conventional unsubsidized loans. You’re also really not supposed to, your school may not let you, and those schools that do could ultimately get in trouble for going out of order and lose access to the Direct loan program.
The Plan
- Contact your servicer and request the removal of the in-school deferment.
- Choose the SAVE plan and make monthly payments. Unless you are gainfully employed, it will likely be $0. If you have a working spouse who earns a substantial income, you may need to file taxes separately in order to exclude their income and benefit the most from the subsidy.
- You will need to repeat the process every semester for new loans as your school will update your servicer that you’re in school and the servicer will automatically apply the in-school deferment.
- If for some reason you want to stop repayment (e.g. get a good job while in school, get married and don’t want to file taxes separately), no biggie. You still have access to the in-school deferment while in school.
PSLF?
- The extra effort and decreased interest have no benefit if you achieve Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF), as PSLF is a time-based program. It doesn’t matter how much you owe.
- However, this technique could still be a reasonable hedge given you never know what kind of job you’ll end up wanting/taking.
The tale of case review at Cigna in ProPublica:
“Deny, deny, deny. That’s how you hit your numbers,” said Day, who worked for Cigna until the late spring of 2022. “If you take a breath or think about any of these cases, you’re going to fall behind.”
[…]
The early 2022 dashboards listed a handle time of four minutes for a prior authorization. The bulk of drug requests were to be decided in two to five minutes. Hospital discharge decisions were supposed to take four and a half minutes.
[…]
As ProPublica and The Capitol Forum reported last year, Cigna built a computer program that allowed its medical directors to deny certain claims in bulk. The insurer’s doctors spent an average of just 1.2 seconds on each of those cases.